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Here's Where the Greatest Hurricane Threat Is in October
Here's Where the Greatest Hurricane Threat Is in October
Jan 17, 2024 3:33 PM

At a Glance

Florida is the state most likely to see a landfalling hurricanein October.Since 1950, 15hurricanes have made a U.S. landfall in October, eight of which occurred in Florida.In South Florida,October isthe month with the most hurricane direct hits.

The threat of Atlantic hurricanes still looms in Octoberas residents of both the East Coast and Gulf Coast have been reminded ofthe past two years.

Last year, made landfall as a hurricaneinthe northern Gulf Coast, first in southeastern Louisiana on Oct. 7and then near Biloxi, Mississippi, on Oct. 8.

Nate produced a storm surge of 6.3 feet at Pascagoula, Mississippi, and a wind gust of 75 mph was recorded at Calvert, Alabama. Nate also produced tornadoes from Alabama to North Carolina.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

In 2016, made one official U.S. landfallOct. 8 southeast of McClellanville, South Carolina, as a hurricane with 75-mph winds.

Before the South Carolina landfall, Matthewparalleled the coasts of Florida and Georgia, bringingwind gusts as high as 107 mph toCape Canaveral, Florida, anda peak storm surge of 9.88 feet above normal at aNational Ocean Servicetide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida.

Although it has been a while since the last October hurricane landfall in Florida, it'sthe state most likely to see a landfalling hurricaneinOctober, with the southern part of the state at the highest risk.

Before last year's pummeling by Category 4 , the last hurricane to make landfall in Florida was on Oct. 24, 2005.

Many Floridians consider October to be the peak of the hurricane seasondue to the increased number of hurricane strikes then, even though the peak of the hurricane season for the entire basin occurs in September.

From 1851 to 2017, 32 hurricanes madea Florida landfallin October, dwarfing the state with the second-highest number of:Louisiana, with 10.

There have been 17 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the) that have made direct hits on the U.S. mainland in the month of October since 1851. Ten of those .

It becomes more difficult for hurricanes to make landfall farther north in October as the upper-level wind pattern changes and the jet stream slides farther south, but in 2012 broke many meteorological rules of thumb.

Track of hurricanes that have made landfall in the U.S. in October from 1950-2017.

The map above shows the 15 hurricanes that have made landfall in October since 1950, not including Sandy since it did not make landfall as a hurricane. Eight of those occurred in Florida, and you can see the cluster of lines in South Florida.

Why Florida?

Even though the climatological peak of the hurricane season – Sept. 10 – has passed, residents along the Gulf and East coasts needto remain prepared for a hurricane.Roughly one-fifth of all U.S. hurricane landfalls have occurred in October and November.

On average, every year in October, according to the National Hurricane Center. The most hurricanes to form in October was five in 2010.

These are the typical areas for development and tracks of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones in October.

By October, we typically see the formation zones of tropical storms and hurricanes shift westward toward the western Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico and far western Atlantic Ocean as the "CaboVerde" portion of the hurricane season, featuring development ofin the eastern Atlantic Ocean, fades.

In South Florida,October isthe month with the most hurricane direct hits.According to, 23October hurricanes have passed within 100 nautical miles of downtown Miami since 1851.

With roughly one-third of an average Atlantic hurricane season left,a number of tropical storms or hurricanes may still form before season's end. Stay aware of what's brewing in the tropics on weather.com, andin case a fall hurricane threatens.

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