At a Glance

Eta is expected to strike Central America as a hurricane early this week.Life-threatening flooding, strong winds and storm surge are all threats.There is uncertainty for what happens with Eta after it impacts Central America.

This a previous version of our forecast for Hurricane Eta. To see the latest updates, .

November in the Tropics

Tropical development isn't all that unusual in the western Caribbean in early November.

In fact, several storms have formed in this area over the last 70 years.

Notably, hurricanes Paloma (2008) and Michelle (2001) have formed near Central America and then moved northeastward toward Cuba. Paloma intensified to a Category 4 near Cuba before weakening to a Category 2 at landfall in the country, causing heavy damage in both Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Michelle was one of the most significant hurricanes in Cuban history at the time, causing billions in damage as a Category 4 hurricane.

(Tropical depressions have formed here since 1950)

We should expect one named storm every other November, and one November hurricane roughly every three years. Of course, some years are more active than this while others are quieter.

Historically, most systems that form in the western Caribbean are scooped up by the dipping jet stream over the United States and pushed northeastward over Cuba and the Bahamas and out to sea.

Other tropical systems form in the open Atlantic and around Bermuda or the western Atlantic. These systems are typically spawned by drooping cold fronts in that region or other orphaned low-pressure systems that break off from the jet stream.

By the end of the month, this jet stream makes it increasingly inhospitable for tropical systems to form in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic. Water temperatures increasingly get too cold for tropical development elsewhere in the basin, leading to less frequent systems.

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