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Winter Weather Advisory Includes New York City Tonight, Friday; Weekend South Snow, Then a Potential Nor'easter Next Week
Winter Weather Advisory Includes New York City Tonight, Friday; Weekend South Snow, Then a Potential Nor'easter Next Week
Jan 17, 2024 3:30 PM

At a Glance

Snow tonight and Friday will blanket areas from Ohio to the southern New England.A weekend system may bring snow, even ice, as far south as Tennessee and the Carolinas.A Nor'easter may bring heavy snow, wind to the Northeast next week.This snow may fall in some areas that have seen little snow this winter.

You have found an old article. For our newest articles, please see our article on and the .

Winter weather advsiories, winter storm watches and warnings have been posted in parts of the Northeast as the first of three separate weather systems is poised to blanket a swath from Ohio to southern New England into Friday.

The second system may bring snow and ice from parts of the Plains to as far south as parts of Tennessee and North Carolina this weekend. Next week, a Nor'easter may bring heavy snow and wind to the Northeast.

The jet stream will take a bit of a southern dive into the Midwest and East by Friday, followed by a much sharper plunge next week.

Whipping through that jet stream, a number of disturbances will provide lift in the atmosphere over sufficientcold air near the ground to produce snow.

(MORE: )

Potential Snowy Setup Into Next Week

It remains too early to specify exact forecast snowfall totals at specific locations fornext week's potential Nor'easter, as the track and evolution of that system remain unclear this far out in time, a common conundrum with potential Northeast snowstorms.

(MORE: )

Round 1:Tonight and Friday

First up, a fast-moving, intensifying upper-level disturbance will quickly spawn an area of low pressure off the Northeast seaboard.

That low won't intensify fast enough to become a major snowstorm before it heads to the Canadian Maritimes, but with alittle cold air in place, a swath of snow will be laid down in the Northeast through Friday.

Someof this snow maymelt on pavement but accumulate on grassy areas and vehicle tops, given the early-week warmth. However, there could be some slushy travel in some areas by Friday morning, including the .

Snowfall Forecast Through Friday

This would be the first snow in a month in New York City, since dumped 9.4 inches of snow in Central Park on February 9.

In far southeast New England, however, heavier snow is possible.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warningfor Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island. Winter storm watches have been posted for the rest of southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

A narrow swath of heavier snow is possible in this corridor, with some areas potentially seeing up to 8inches of accumulation, with snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour Friday morning.

Winter Alerts

The snow should taper off in most areas by Friday afternoon.

Round 2: Friday through Sunday

Meanwhile, starting Friday, a swath of snow may already be blanketing parts of the northern Plains.

By Saturday, that swath of snow should spread into the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valleyand parts of the Appalachians.

Saturday's Outlook

(Areas shown in darkest teal have the best chance of snow. Areas in pink may see either rain or snow. Areas in green are expected to see primarily rain.)

Saturday night and Sunday, that snow then spreads into parts of the East.

Sunday's Outlook

(Areas shown in darkest teal have the best chance of snow. Areas in pink may see either rain or snow. Areas in green are expected to see primarily rain.)

For now, this lookslike a moderate snow event overall (translation, you'll have to shovel or get out the snowthrower), with the potential of locally heavy snow in a few spots.

However, the potential for any accumulating snow as far south as parts of Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina and southern Virginia may snarl travel on roads, particularly in the Appalachians.

Snowfall Outlook Through Sunday

(While it is too far out in time to specify exact forecast snowfall totals, areas in the purple and pink contours have the highest chance at heavy snowfall.)

If that wasn't enough, the southern edge of the wintry precipitation from Friday night through Sunday may also include sleet and/or freezing rain from parts of the northern Plains to the Ozarks, Tennessee and North Carolina.

Given it's early March, we don't anticipate a major ice storm, but accumulations of sleet or ice are possible in parts of this swath that may at least slicken roads, if not trigger some power outages, in spots.

Round 3: Sunday through Wednesday

As round 2 is exiting the East Coast, this next system will be wringing out more snow in the northern Plains Sunday.

Monday, this snow could spread into the Great Lakes, and then into parts of the Northeast by Tuesday.

(MAPS: )

Tuesday's Outlook

(Areas shown in darkest teal have the best chance of snow. Areas in pink may see either rain or snow. Areas in green are expected to see primarily rain.)

In fact, there is potential for low pressure to intensify near or off the Northeast seaboard, potentially bringing heavy snow and strong winds to parts of the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday.

(MORE: )

But, again, that remains at least fivedays away, and the details of that forecast remain unresolved and are likely to change in the coming days.

What is quite certain is a nasty snap of cold air, relative to March averages, will descend into parts of the Midwest and East, persisting into much of next week.

(MORE: )

The Corridor Winter Forgot

For some in the Midwest and East, winter has been exceptionally mild and snowless.

Chicago just experienced its. The last such snow cover at O'Hare International Airport was on Christmas morning.

Along with the Windy City, Indianapolis, Washington D.C.and Baltimore are also at a snowfall deficit of at leastone footthrough March5.

In Baltimore, it's the least snowy winter-to-date since0.4 inches of snow fell through March5, 1950. The last one-inch-plus snowfall at Baltimore-Washington International Airport was roughly one year ago, March3-4, 2016.

(INTERACTIVE: )

Just down Interstate 95, the 1.4 inchesat Washington's Reagan National Airport so far is theleast snowy season-to-date in 19 years, when only 0.1 inches had fallen, and would tie 1972-73 for the least snowy season.

According to an index known as , which calculates the severity of a winter based on snowfall and cold weather days, this has beena record-mild winterin the following cities:

Omaha, NebraskaDes Moines, IowaLouisville, KentuckyLexington, KentuckyCharleston, West VirginiaElkins, West Virginia

Plot of Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) values on March 6, 2017. Red diamonds indicate locations which were calculated to have a record mild winter-to-date through March 6. Red circles denote a "mild" winter, orange circles a "moderate" winter, yellow circles an "average" winter, and blue circles a "severe" winter.

(Midwest Regional Climate Center)

Southern snowfall in March isn't as unusual as it sounds.

For instance, Nashville, Tennessee, has had a number of significant March snowstorms.

Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, has had several heavy March snowstorms in their history, as well, but they've only had a single 1-inch-plus March snowfall since 1983, a 3.2-inch event on March 2, 2009.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Winter Storm Niko (Early February 2017)

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