At a Glance

The first weekend of November, Seattle saw one of its earliest snow events on record.La Niña is expected to develop for the second winter in a row.Colder-than-average temperatures are expected in the Northwest again this winter.Last winter was the snowiest in Portland in 24 years.

With the forecast of another La Niña, coupled with some of the earliest snow on record in Seattle, some in the Northwest U.S. may wonder if a repeat of the cold, snowy winter 2016-17 is ahead.

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November started with a pair of potent snow events in the Cascades and Rockies.In addition, cold air spilledthrough gaps in the Cascades to produce snowat sea level in western Washington.

The second of these events Sunday was the , the earliest such eventtherein 42 years. This was of the season.

Not to be outdone, Spokanepicked up at least 1 inch of snow three consecutive days from Nov. 3-5, adding up to its.

This may be giving some in the Pacific Northwest a bit of déjà vu trepidation.

Last winter was the snowiest in 24 years in Portland. There were.

Seattle picked up double its average snow last winter(11.2 inches,) and Pocatello, Idaho, suffered through its second snowiest season - 87.6 inches -in records dating to 1939. The snowfallwasfollowed by destructive flooding later in the winter and spring.

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Is a repeat La Niña locking in another cold, snowy winter in the Northwest?

Probably Cold...But How Snowy?

The short answer isit's not necessarily that cut and dry.

Last December-February was the ninth coldest such period on record in Seattleand sixth coldest in Portland.

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A sharp southward jet-stream plunge kept cold air largely confined to the Pacific Northwest, with relatively mild air over the rest of the country.

Sogiven that La Niña, a periodic cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean,is expected to develop again in time for winter, it makes sense to at least begin with a cold winter forecast for the Northwest.

by The Weather Company and NOAA each anticipate a colder-than-average December-Februaryin at least parts of the Northwest, with highest confidence in both outlooks in western Washington state.

December 2017 - February 2018 temperature outlook issued Oct. 20 by The Weather Company. The red contour in the South corresponds to higher probabilities of above-average temperatures. The darker blue areas in the Northwest and Upper Midwest have the highest odds of below-average temperatures. The light blue and orange contours show where temperatures may be slightly below or slightly above average, respectively.

Another sign favorable for a colder winter is the already in the Canadian Rockies,northern U.S. Rockies and Cascades.

This snowpack would help refrigerate any early-season Arctic air masses from Canada before they spill into the Northwest.

Tree branches, broken from the weight of heavy snow, are scattered on the ground of the park blocks across from the Portland Art Museum in Portland, Ore., Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2017.

(AP Photo/Don Ryan)

So cold air should be in place more often than not in the Northwest this winter.

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La Niña winters are and northern Rockies.

Given the colder and wetter forecast, it seems likely that another above-average snowy winter is in the cards for the northern Rockies.

But for the parts of the Pacific Northwest that typically don't see much snow or ice each winter, this forecast is trickier.

While the chances of a colder winter are greater in western Washington and western Oregon, that doesn't guarantee that a given Pacific storm or series of storms will occur when air cold enough for snow or ice is in place from Puget Sound to the Willamette Valley.

This winter could easily feature a series of close calls, with cold rain more often thanaccumulating snow or ice. That kind of detail cannot be forecasted a month or more in advance.

The NWS office in Portland probably put it best at the end of saying, "Lowland snow could happen, or maybe not."

Furthermore, an early snowy start to the season doesn't necessarilyguaranteea snowy winteroverall.

According to the National Weather Service, only two of Seattle'sfive seasons with their earliest measurable snowfall prior to 2017-18 finished with above-average snowfall for the winter.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on and .