At a Glance

Forecasters at the United Kingdom's Met Office say a spike in average global temperature may occur within the next five years.The scientists say the spike will coincide with an expected largeEl Niñoevent in the Pacific.

The global average temperature on Earth may surpass a key Paris Agreement target withinthe next five years, a new study says.

According to , scientists are forecasting a likely rise in temperatures to more than 1 degree Celsius to as much as1.5 degrees Celsiusabove pre-industrial levels at some point before 2022.

The office further warns that there is a 10 percent chance that the average temperaturecould exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for an entire year during the five-year period, a .

“Given we’ve seen global average temperatures around 1 degreeC above pre-industrial levels over the last three years, it is now possible that continued warming from greenhouse gases along with natural variability could combine so we temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees C in the next five years,"Stephen Belcher, chief scientist at the met office said in apress release.

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The Paris Agreement calls for countries to voluntarily limit greenhouse gases in an effort to keep average global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius, with a goal of keeping them to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“We are now starting to see a small but real chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius level, but we should remember that the Paris Agreement is about the global climate reaching this level over a longer-term average, rather than just a temporary excursion,"Doug Smith,of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said.

The scientists say they base their prediction on a likely largeEl Niñoevent in the Pacific in the next few years.

El Niño is the periodic warming of the eastern and central equatorialPacificOcean water, which can influence the weather pattern across the globe.

One of the impacts El Niño can have on the weather is a rise in global temperature. This is due to the release of excess heat from the warmer ocean waters. Over time the temperature in other oceans also rise,adding to the increase in global temperature.