At a Glance

More frequent droughts and heat waves will decrease the amount of barley produced globally, according to a new study.This would result in a shortage of beer and drive up prices.In a worst-case scenario, reduced barley supply would result in a 16 percent decrease in global beer consumption and prices to double on average.

As if last week's major study from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) didn't hit home with you, maybe this will: Climate change is coming for our beer, and hard.

More frequent droughts and heat waves will , resulting in a shortage of beer, according to a new study in Nature Plants. Even under best-case scenario climate change models, beer prices will be driven up due to a decrease in the supply.

Dabo Guan, a climate change economist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, and his colleagues used a combination of climate and economic models to predict how extreme weather events produced by climate change is expected to affect barley crops and, in turn, its impact on beer supply and pricing.

Guan and his team began by examining the changes of major droughts and heat waves between 2010 and 2099 in regions on all six inhabited continents where barley is grown, considering four possible scenarios. The best-case scenario projected relatively low levels of greenhouse-gas emissions in the 21st century and the worst-case scenario projected high levels of emissions.

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With those cases, each scenario saw an increase the likelihood of extreme weather affecting barley-growing regions of the world when compared to the frequency of similar events at the end of last century and the early part of this century. The best-case scenario saw its chances increase by 4 percent, while the worst-case saw an increase of a whopping 31 percent.

Then, using software that simulates the effect of these droughts and heat waves on barley growth and yield, the research team found that extreme weather would reduce barley yield by between three percent and 17 percent globally.

Even then, , researchers at the University of California-Irvine reported in a press release. Most of the grain produced around the world is used to feed livestock, which would further reduce the amount of barley used for brewing.

These yield changes were then fed into an economic model that accounts for changes in supply and demand on a global market, enabling them to view the impact of the reduced barley production on pricing and consumption of beer, as well as trade between nations.

Climate change's impact on beer prices per pint in both low- and high-emissions scenarios.

(Nature Plants)

Worst-case scenario: Reduced barley supply would result in a 16 percent decrease in beer consumption globally in years of extreme weather event, causing prices to double on average. That 16 percent decrease is "comparable to all beer consumption in the U.S.," said UCI's Steven Davis, a co-author of the study.

The best-case scenario led to a 4 percent reduction in the consumption of beer and a 15 percent increase in price globally.

Of the countries studied, Ireland would see the largest spike in absolute price. The price of a 16-ouncebeer would increase by almost $5 per bottle, tripling the cost. The price change is partially influenced by the consumers' willingness to pay, and Ireland sits atop the world's list of consumers of beer per person.

The Czech Republic, who has relativelycheaper beer to begin with, would see a massive spike in price of more than 600 percent.

While beer production may seem like peanuts compared to the greater effects of climate change, Guan hopes that singling out one of life's simple pleasures will get people thinking about the vast implications of climate change.

"What I’m trying to emphasize here is that climate change will impact people’s lifestyle," said Guan, hoping that people will understand the impact climate change could have on their everyday lives.

If we "want to drink beer when we watch football, then we have to do something,” Guan added.