At a Glance

Lake-effect snow requires cold air to cross over a relatively warmer body of water.If the Earth's temperatures are warming, lake temperatures could also stay warm longer.Warm lakes means there will also be less ice coverage, allowing lake-effect season to run later into the winter.

Lake-effect snow occurs every winter downwind of the Great Lakes and several other large bodies of water, as long as the necessary conditions are met: cold air crossing over a relatively warmer lake surface, which picks up moisture to condense into clouds and dumps heavy snow downwind of the lakes. But as the Earth's climate changes, how much longer will these ingredients continue to come together?

, including a10-day period from Feb. 3-12, 2007, when an incredible 141 inches of snow were measured in the town of , about 50 miles northeast of Syracuse in the Tug Hill Plateau, east of Lake Ontario.

As a snow-lover, I went to college at in central New York on the southeast shore of Lake Ontario because of these epic snowfall totals for which that region is known. During the Blizzard of '66, , with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

During my four years in SUNY Oswego's meteorology program, I saw my fair share of lake-effect snow, but certainly nothing anywhere near that magnitude. But this fascination begs the question: Are lake-effect snowstorms getting weaker as the Earth's climate changes?

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Satellite image taken on Jan. 6, 2017, of the Great Lakes during a lake-effect snow event. Clouds can be seen streaming off of the Great Lakes, with lake-effect snow bands visible along the southern shore of Lake Erie and eastern end of Lake Ontario.

(NASA/NOAA)

For the third year in a row, 2016 , dating back to 1880.Three separate analyses came to this conclusion, and more importantly, the warming trend in global temperatures continues.

If our planet's temperatures are getting warmer, surely that must mean there will be less lake-effect snow in the future. If the air isn't cold, how are we going to get lake-effect snow to form?

Actually, it's the opposite, . The study suggests there will actually bemorelake-effect snow in the Great Lakes snowbelts, at least for a while.

Lake-effect snow is directly related to how warm and ice-free the lakes are, as well as the difference between the lake temperatures and the temperature of the air blowing over them.

Di Libertosaid in a world of global warming, not only will lake temperatures increase, but the lakes will also remain ice-free for a longer duration.

"As long as there is enough cold air to blow over the lakes, it could mean an increase in lake-effect snows even in a world where temperatures are increasing, as counter-intuitive as that may sound," he said.

Once a lake freezes over, the moisture and heat source for lake-effect snow is lost, so it's basically shut off for the remainder of the winter season. But as long as we have cold air, warm water and ice-free lakes, we'll continue to get lake-effect snow each year.

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Satellite image taken on Feb. 14, 2014, of the highly ice-covered Great Lakes.

(NASA/NOAA)

According to Di Liberto, we've likely seen changes in lake-effect snow already, but there is uncertainty in that statement because snowfall is measured by hand with a ruler, which leaves room for user error. If it's not measured properly, inaccurate numbers may be recorded.

Regardless, Di Liberto said recent research has suggested lake-effect snow totals along Lake Superior and Lake Michigan have increased from 1927 to 2007. Previous research found increases for the entire Great Lakes region between 1931 and 2001.

There is one hiccup in the hypothesis of a warmer climate leading to increased lake-effect snow, said Di Liberto: "The cold air that flows over the lakes will also be getting warmer over time, which would favorlesslake-effect snow. It’s like an epic game of climate change tug-of-war."

According to a combination of climate models and lake models used inVavrus et. al 2013 and Notaro et. al 2015, heavy lake-effect snowstorms will become more frequent around Lake Superior by 2050.

Map showing the projected change in average surface air temperature (°F) in the later part of this century (2071-2099) relative to the later part of the last century (1970-1999) under a higher emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in global emissions (A2).

(NOAA Climate.gov)

A study by Wright in 2013 used higher-resolution computer models to simulate lake effect with warmer lakes and less ice coverage, and the results showed increased snowfall downwind of all the Great Lakes and farther inland.

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Therefore, Di Liberto concludes an increase in lake-effect snow is possible for a while, but eventually the snow will turn to rain as global temperatures continue to rise.

This is good news, at least for the next few decades,for any lake-effect snow fanatics, like me, who may also be fascinated by this study.

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People dig out plowed-in cars in Syracuse, NY., Monday, Nov.21, 2016, after Syracuse's first snowstorm of the season belted the area. At least ten inches covered the area along with high winds. (Dennis Nett/The Syracuse Newspapers via AP)