Residents of Chesapeake Bay’s Tangier Island could be among the first “climate change” refugees in the continental U.S. as rising sea levels swallow their historic fishing village.

A report recently published in the Scientific Reports says . This news does not come as a surprise to the locals, who have seen their island and others recede over the past decades.

"I think it'll be less than 50 years," Carol Pruitt-Moore, a seventh generation resident, told The Associated Press. "We are one storm away from being washed away or being forced to evacuate."

The image above shows Tangier Island (circled) and surrounding islands shrinking around the edges as rising sea levels eat away at the land masses.

(USGS/Landsat)

Located in , the Tangier Island remains alongside the Goose, Uppards and Port Isobel islands. Researchers calculated that only one-third of Tangier’s land mass remains from the 1850s.

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With a population of about 700, the island is only three miles long and a mile wide. Because of its low-lying position, it is particularly vulnerable to climate change and subsidence - the gradual sinking of the bay.

Using maps and aerial photographs of the islands from 1850 to 2013, the authors of the study were able to construct a model that predicts the lifespan of the islands. At the current rate, Goose Island will be flooded by 2038. Tangier will become split into three low-lying uninhabitable marshes.

According to David Schulte, an author of the report, a “perfect storm” is swamping the island with a sea level increase that is almost double the global average rise of 3.5mm per year

“The islands are shrinking and unless corrective action is taken they will be lost. The whole island won’t be underwater but it will turn into marshland,” Schulte told The Guardian. “Tangier is only 1.2m above sea level now so a moderately severe sea level rise will put them in extreme jeopardy of storms and flooding.

In the photo above, archaeologist Joanna Wilson, left, and Thomas Klatka work on a grave site being claimed by the sea on the north end of Tangier Island, Virginia.

(AP Photo/Steve )

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“Even under a low sea level rise they will have about a century. So far they’ve been pretty lucky with storms. They were spared the brunt of Hurricane Sandy. I don’t think it would’ve recovered from that. We’ll have to keep our fingers crossed on that score.”

The use of and prolong its lifetime, according to the New Scientist. New dunes would have to be planted with trees and former ridges would need to be re-established to create high, safe places on the island.

The report predicts , and they could possibly extend the island’s lifespan by another 50 years.

“The Tangier Islands and the town are running out of time, and if no action is taken, the citizens of Tangier may become the first climate change refugees in the continental USA," the report concludes.

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

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