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Antarctica's Ice Is Melting So Fast a Widespread Collapse Could Happen by 2100, Study Says
Antarctica's Ice Is Melting So Fast a Widespread Collapse Could Happen by 2100, Study Says
May 15, 2024 1:52 PM

The continued burning of fossil fuels could have a catastrophic effect on ice melt in Antarctica, leading to major consequences before the end of the century, a new study says.

Antarctica's ice loss across the continent as early as 2100, according to the findings published in Nature Geoscience. Using computer models, the study also discovered there could be a doubling of ice shelf surface melting by 2050, which could quickly drive up sea levels.

"Our results illustrate just how rapidly melting in Antarctica can intensify in a warming climate," Luke Trusel, lead author and postdoctoral scholar at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said in a press release. "This has already occurred in places like the Antarctic Peninsula, where we've observed warming and abrupt ice shelf collapses in the last few decades. Our model projections show that similar levels of melt may occur across coastal Antarctica near the end of this century, raising concerns about future ice shelf stability."

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The scientists who performed the study came to the conclusion by looking at satellite data of ice surface melt and combined it with climate simulations that show the effect of moderate and high greenhouse gas emission levels. In both cases, there's a high amount of ice-shelf loss by the year 2050.

But in the projectionwhere moderate, not high, greenhouse gas emissions were factored into the equation, there was little increase in ice-shelf loss between 2050 and 2100, the scientists found. This discovery basically tells us that a lot of the damage will be done no matter what we do in the next 35 years, but there's still time to alter the effects of greenhouse gases on the planet in the second half of the 21st century.

“The data presented in this study clearly show that climate policy, and therefore the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions over the coming century, have an enormous control over the future fate of surface melting of Antarctic ice shelves, which we must consider when assessing their long-term stability and potential indirect contributions to sea level rise,” said Dr. Karen Frey from Clark University, who co-authored the study.

The continued ice melt in Antarctica has been accelerating in recent years as warm water from the sea takes away more and more ice from the continent's glaciers. According to a study released late last year, Antarctica's glaciers that it's equivalent to the size of Mount Everest falling into the sea every two years, pushing sea levels higher and higher.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Glacial Melt in Antarctica

Station Bernardo O'Higgins, Antarctica

In this Jan. 22, 2015 photo, Gentoo penguins stand on rocks near the Chilean station Bernardo O'Higgins, Antarctica. Here on the Antarctic peninsula, where the continent is warming the fastest because the land sticks out in the warmer ocean, 49 billion tons of ice is lost a year according to NASA. (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)

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